The low light and clouds this morning distinctly give that impression about today.
Cook's Pond, which is as still as glass, despite the movement of the air, reflects the clouds, and just now, as I write this, it has started to rain.
None of that captures what is predicted for this afternoon though.
This afternoon could be rainy, or it could be epic.
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. THE GREATEST RISK IS ACROSS CONNECTICUT...WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS TO JUST NORTHWEST OF PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREES AND POWERLINES RESULTING IN POTENTIAL POWER OUTAGES. THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF CONNECTICUT...WESTERN- CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS BETWEEN NOON AND 5 PM...OTHER POTENTIAL HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS INCLUDE LARGE HAIL...A VERY LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
If you want to know what the difference will be between rain and this intense storm prospect, the answer is simply How Much Sun Do We Get Today. More sun equals more atmospheric instability, equals more storm potential.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE OCCURS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 70+ MPH OR EVEN HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY. IN ADDITION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY IS BETWEEN 2 AND 8 PM ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE...BUT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS. STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT FLASH FLOODING...BUT HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN BRIEF POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING.
Stay tuned and be careful, eh?
Trailhead Conditions at Cascading Waters at 7:30 a.m. (elev. 630'):
Temperature is 67.1 degrees F and rising;
Humidity is 87% and steady;
Pressure is 29.77" of Hg and steady;
Wind is stirring but not registering in mph;
Skies are cloudy (rain started just after observations);
The Cascades have some flow;
The Cascades Brook has some flow in both channels;
The USFS Fire Danger Class is LOW.
The National Weather Service Forecast:
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then thunderstorms likely after 2pm.
Some storms could be severe, with large hail, damaging winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning.
Partly sunny, with a high near 85.
Breezy, with a south wind 9 to 14 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Winds could gust as high as 36 mph.
Chance of precipitation is 60%.
New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.